Hint: It’s not enrollment, inquiries, or ad spend.
Most childcare operators track the same metrics: total enrollment, number of inquiries, maybe cost per lead.
These aren’t bad numbers. But they’re lagging indicators — they tell you what already happened, not what’s about to happen.
After working with nearly 200 childcare locations, I’ve learned that the operators who stay ahead aren’t tracking different things — they’re tracking things differently.
Here are the 3 numbers I look at first when diagnosing enrollment health:
1. Lead Velocity Trend
Not how many leads you got last month. Whether that number is accelerating or decelerating.
20 leads in January, 18 in February, 14 in March — that’s not a “slow month.” That’s a trend. And if you’re not watching the direction, you won’t see the cliff until you’re falling off it.
This is especially critical for multi-site operators. One location might look fine in isolation (15 leads last month), but when you see that it was 22 leads three months ago, the picture changes completely.
What to do with this:
- Track leads monthly by location
- Look at the 3-month trend, not just the snapshot
- Flag any location with two consecutive months of decline
Most operators look at lead count. They should look at lead momentum.
2. Capacity Utilization by Program
Your center is “85% enrolled.” Sounds healthy.
But your infant room is at 50% while Pre-K has a waitlist.
This changes everything:
- Where you spend ad dollars — why promote Pre-K when there’s no room?
- What programs you highlight — infant and toddler should be front and center
- How you allocate tours — are you prioritizing families who need the rooms you need to fill?
Operators who only look at overall enrollment miss the room-level economics that actually drive revenue. A center at “85% enrollment” with an empty infant room is leaving significant money on the table — infant/toddler tuition is typically the highest.
What to do with this:
- Break enrollment reporting down by age group / program
- Align marketing messaging to your actual capacity gaps
- Adjust ad targeting and budget allocation accordingly
One number hides the real story. Break it open.
3. Review Velocity
Not total reviews. Recent reviews.
We recently analyzed 75 childcare centers and found that locations with steady new reviews consistently outranked competitors with more total reviews but stale profiles.
Google sees recency as a trust signal. A center with 40 reviews and 5 from last month often beats a center with 100 reviews and none since 2024.
This matters beyond just rankings. AI-powered search (Google’s AI Overviews, ChatGPT, etc.) increasingly pulls from review data to make recommendations. A stale review profile signals a stale business.
What to do with this:
- Track new reviews per month, not just total count
- Set a target: 2-4 new reviews per location per month is a reasonable baseline
- Respond to every review — Google notices engagement
- Build a system, not a reminder to “ask for more reviews”
Most operators ask “how many reviews do we need?” They should ask “how many did we get this month?”
Why These Numbers Matter
These three metrics won’t show up in your CRM dashboard or your franchise reporting portal. Most enrollment reports show you the rearview mirror — what already happened.
These numbers show you the windshield — what’s coming.
| Metric | What Most Operators Track | What They Should Track |
|---|---|---|
| Leads | Total count | Velocity trend |
| Enrollment | Overall percentage | Utilization by program |
| Reviews | Total number | Recent velocity |
That’s the difference between reacting and anticipating.
The Multi-Location Challenge
If you’re running multiple locations, multiply this complexity by every center in your portfolio.
- Which locations have declining lead velocity?
- Which programs at which centers are underperforming?
- Which locations have gone quiet on reviews?
Most operators can’t answer these questions quickly — not because they don’t care, but because the data isn’t surfaced in a way that makes it visible.
That’s exactly what Childcare Enrollment Intelligence (CEI) is built for — surfacing the leading indicators across your entire operation, so you can see where to focus before the lagging numbers confirm what you missed.
The Bottom Line
The operators who see these numbers early are the ones who fill classrooms consistently. The rest are looking at the wrong numbers to make their decisions.
If you’re ready to move from rearview mirror management to actually anticipating what’s coming, let’s talk.
Based on data from nearly 200 childcare locations and ongoing analysis through the CEI framework.